The Effects of Operating Income, Gross Profit, Net Income, and Total Accruals on Future Cash Flows: Empirical Evidence from Mining Sector Companies Listed on The Indonesia Stock Exchange, 2020–2024

Anisa Fitriani; Irfan Gaffar Adnan; Melvin Rahma Sayuga Subroto

doi:10.38142/jogta.v5i1.2062

Authors

Anisa Fitriani Universitas Nahdlatul Ulama Yogyakarta, Indonesia
Irfan Gaffar Adnan Universitas Nahdlatul Ulama Yogyakarta, Indonesia
Melvin Rahma Sayuga Subroto Universitas Nahdlatul Ulama Yogyakarta, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.38142/jogta.v5i1.2062

Keywords:

Future Cash Flows, Operating Income, Gross Profit, Net Income, Total Accruals

Abstract

This study examines the effects of operating income, gross profit, net income, and total accruals on future cash flows among mining-sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during 2020–2024. A quantitative approach was employed using secondary data obtained from audited annual financial statements. Purposive sampling yielded 10 companies and 50 balanced panel observations. The data were analyzed through panel-data regression in EViews. The Chow and Hausman tests supported the Fixed Effect Model, and Generalized Least Squares with cross-section weights was subsequently applied to address heteroskedasticity. The results show that operating income has a negative and significant effect on future cash flows, although this coefficient should be interpreted cautiously because of the high correlations among the earnings components. Gross profit has no significant effect. Net income has a positive and significant effect and emerges as the most reliable earnings component for predicting future cash flows. Total accruals have a negative and significant effect, indicating that a larger accrual component in reported earnings is associated with lower cash realization in the subsequent period. Collectively, operating income, gross profit, net income, and total accruals significantly affect future cash flows. The adjusted R-squared of 0.845 indicates that the model explains 84.5% of the variation in future cash flows. These findings underscore the importance of net income and total accruals for investors, creditors, and management when assessing the liquidity prospects of mining companies

References

Ball, R., Nikolaev, V., Dechow, P., Landsman, W., Nallareddy, S., Penman, S., Ramesh, K., Sethuraman, M., Veenman, D., Venkatachalam, M., & Zeff, S. (2021). On earnings and cash flows as predictors of future cash flows *. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3842963

Ball, R., & Nikolaev, V. V. (2022). On earnings and cash flows as predictors of future cash flows. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 73(1). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacceco.2021.101430

Brigham, E. F., & Houston, J. F. (2018). Dasar-dasar manajemen keuangan (Edisi 14). Salemba Empat. https://opac.perpusnas.go.id/DetailOpac.aspx?id=1186849#

Dhole, S., Gul, F. A., Mishra, S., & Pal, A. M. (2021). The joint information role of analysts’ cash flow and earnings forecasts. Accounting and Finance, 61(1), 499–541. https://doi.org/10.1111/acfi.12581

Donaldson, L., & Davis, J. H. (1991). Stewardship Theory or Agency Theory: CEO Governance and Shareholder Returns. Australian Journal of Management, 16(1), 49–64. https://doi.org/10.1177/031289629101600103

Dr. Kasmir. (2018). Analisis laporan keuangan (Cetakan 11). Rajawali Pers. https://www.scribd.com/document/678544787/Buku-Analisis-Laporan-Keuangan-2023-Ratih-Kusumastuti

Gujarati, D. N. (2004). Basic econometrics (4th ed.). McGraw-Hill.

Monika Budiman, Yohn Piter Barus, & Maria Lidwina Sukarta. (2025). Forecasting Future Cash Flows Using Income Statement Components in Indonesia’s Food and Beverage Sector. Jurnal Riset Akuntansi Dan Auditing, 11(3), 50–63. https://doi.org/10.55963/jraa.v11i3.771

Mudjiyono, & Adi Wicaksono, D. (2022). The Effect of Gross Profit, Operational Profit and Net Profit on Future Cash Flows.

Noury, B., Hammami, H., Ousama, A. A., & Zeitun, R. (2020). The prediction of future cash flows based on operating cash flows, earnings and accruals in the French context. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 28. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2020.100414

Santoso, K., Pardanawati, S. L., & Setyadi, M. G. (2024). Menakar peran laba kotor, laba operasi, dan laba bersih dalam memprediksi arus kas masa depan. Jurnal Ilmiah Keuangan Akuntansi Bisnis, 3(3), 605–612. https://doi.org/10.53088/jikab.v3i3.106

Spence, M. (1973). JOB MARKET SIGNALING *. http://qje.oxfordjournals.org/

Sulistyawan, W., & Septiani, A. (2015). Pengaruh laba bersih, arus kas operasi dan komponen-komponen akrual dalam memprediksi arus kas operasi di masa depan. Diponegoro Journal of Accounting, 4(4), 460–470. https://ejournal3.undip.ac.id/index.php/accounting/article/view/9601

Wasalwa, W., & Maha Putra, D. (2025). Operating Cash Flow Prediction: A Comparative Study of Earnings and Accruals. Accounting Analysis Journal, 13(3), 173–183. https://doi.org/10.15294/aaj.v13i3.13001